I made my weekly shopping trip this morning, this time to WinCo. I had heard rumblings from several mainstream news sources that there was a worldwide cocoa shortage brewing. So I added cocoa powder from the bulk bins to my shopping list.
I got to the bulk bin section and lo and behold, the cocoa bin was completely empty. I asked the friendly woman refilling various bins if cocoa powder was on the list to be refilled today, thinking I'd gladly hang around a little longer if it meant getting cocoa powder in bulk (the bulk is always less expensive than the packaged cocoa powder). She went to the stockroom and came back with bad news. Not only was the cocoa powder not to be restocked today, but the next shipment wasn't due until mid-April. She said her supervisor said something about problems with the shipment.
I made a beeline to the regular baking section, and to my relief, there were several containers of cocoa on the shelf. But, it was so much more expensive than the last time I bought packaged cocoa powder, three years ago. The price on store brand cocoa powder was almost double per pound what it would have been if bought from the bulk bins. Still, I bought 2 canisters of cocoa powder today.
When I got home, I did a little more reading on the cocoa situation. Here's what I learned. Cocoa prices hit an all time high this past December. 70% of cocoa is grown in Africa, mostly along the west coast. Crops have been poorer than usual due to excessive rainfall and higher than typical temperatures. In addition, a virus has been attacking cocoa trees, reducing their productive years. And finally, supply chain has been interrupted due to political instability, regulatory pressures, and logistical bottlenecks in exporting the harvested cocoa pods.
One news source suggested that cocoa prices would remain high through 2025. However, I also checked the cocoa futures page on tradingeconomics.com for more up-to-date cocoa trading information. Cocoa futures are trading significantly lower now in March than they were in December. Weather prospects in West Africa have improved and it appears there will be a supply surplus for the current growing season, the first surplus in four years. Cocoa inventories in US ports have climbed significantly since December 2024. The longterm 2025 outlook is for cocoa futures prices to moderate to a mid-point (around $10,000 per tonne) between December's high future's price and today's low future's price, in about 12 months time.
So it looks like a severe shortage for the year has been averted. Still, more and more of the world's population now enjoys cocoa products, which means the limited amount currently being produced has to be shared amongst a larger group of people.
To the rescue, innovative ideas in both how to grow cocoa and the introduction of newer cocoa substitutes which could replace part of cocoa needed in chocolate-flavored treats and beverages. The combination of the above innovations could take the pressure off tighter supply and keep cocoa affordable, even during poor growing seasons and with more people around the world enjoying chocolate.
I'm relieved that my chocolate-y fix is assured going forward. My personality could suffer some disturbances should my personal supply chain of cocoa be interrupted.
I don't bake with much cocoa and haven't bought any in years. However, I will be upset if chocolate becomes unaffordable to me. :)
ReplyDeleteHi Live and Learn,
DeleteI hope we never see the day when a small bar of chocolate is no longer affordable for most, at least for a treat every now and then.
Maybe I should add cocoa powder to my grocery list. I go through one or two containers a year (the standard size--I'm too lazy to check and see how many ounces are in them). It's an easy and versatile ingredient when you need a chocolatey fix (and yes, it's a need).
ReplyDeleteHi Kris,
Delete8 ounces seems to be the most common small container of cocoa powder. Does Aldi have a good price on cocoa powder?
My family goes through a lot of cocoa powder. Three of us have smoothies almost everyday, to which we add a spoonful of cocoa powder. And I agree -- it's a need!
Cocoa powder has doubled or more then doubled in my Walmart, Aldi, Giant stores. (PA) I had heard awhile ago there could be a shortage and purchased 10 or so containers of cocoa powder as I home baked and cook almost everything we eat (five kids, me and husband) so we go through some food over here! I also astounded and frustrated by price of chocolate chips! Goodness! I've been rationing my stash and cut amounts in half and so far no one has complained. I am relieved by your research that perhaps things are on an upswing with chocolate. I cannot live without it! :)
ReplyDeleteHi Amanda,
DeleteI bought a couple of large bags of chocolate chips last spring, and I'm now just about out. I haven't checked the price on those recently. I hope they haven't gone up too much. Yes, I've been doing the same, knowing I'm almost out of chocolate chips, increasing the batter, but keeping the chips the same amount. Like you, no one is complaining, yet. I don't think we'll see super low prices on cocoa powder or chocolate chips. But I do think we'll see the price stabilize or maybe go down just a tad over current prices.
It's really hard to find something that satisfies quite like a square of chocolate, isn't it? Count me as another who can't live without it for very long.