My High Fall Grocery Spends Appear to Lead to Low Winter Grocery Spends: The Numbers

I think most of us realize that in the grocery stores, the fall months have more of the basic cooking and baking items featured on sale than the later winter months. And I myself have mentioned that I spend a lot in the fall stocking up on supplies and comparatively less following in the first couple of months of the year. 

I wanted to see the actual numbers (comparing fall and winter spends) in a long-range perspective (not just one or two years). So, here they are. I have listed my spending amounts for late fall and early winter of the past 9 years.

I consider November and December to be my primary stocking up months, while January and February are my "coasting" months, where we use what we bought at a discount or seasonally-low price in the fall.

Nov. 2012 $290   Dec. 2012 $247   Jan. 2013 $137  Feb. 2013 $191
Nov. 2013 $254   Dec. 2013 $162    Jan. 2014 $119  Feb. 2014 $135
Nov. 2014 $297   Dec. 2014 $159    Jan. 2015 $94    Feb. 2015 $201
Nov. 2015 $232   Dec. 2015 $91      Jan. 2016 $118  Feb. 2016 $164 
Nov. 2016 $493   Dec. 2016 $142   Jan. 2017 $129  Feb. 2017 $158
Nov. 2017 $284   Dec. 2017 $330   Jan 2018  $110  Feb. 2018 $183
Nov. 2018 $275   Dec. 2018 $265   Jan 2019  $162  Feb. 2019 $90
Nov. 2019 $157    Dec. 2019 $171    Jan 2020 (current $81, budget -- $106)  Feb 2020 (budget - $105)

In the numbers below, I've combined together November and December, then January and February of specific years, to get an idea of how the higher fall spending leads to lower winter spending.

The amounts spent per month varied quite a bit, and in one or two cases an isolated month bucked the trend and either incurred less or more spending than would have been projected. However, when the fall months are combined and weighed against the combined winter months, the trend is consistent -- I spend more in the fall and less in the winter. In some years, I spent over $300 more in fall than in I spent in winter.

Part of this could be due to buying holiday foods in fall, whereas, I don't do a lot of holiday food shopping in winter. Even so, I don't spend $300 on holiday foods between Thanksgiving and Christmas, ever. My holiday dinners run about $15 to $25 per holiday. In addition, while I bake more during the holidays, I don't believe that I bake $300 worth of goodies each holiday season. My waistline couldn't handle that much baking. Also, we bake a relatively small amount of goodies to be given to others during the holidays. 

The other plausible explanation for the difference in spending between fall and winter is I have found more deals in the fall (and therefore stocked up) than I have in winter.

In the fall, I find a lot of advertised sales on shelf-stable baking ingredients, canned goods, long-keeping refrigerated foods (like cheese and butter), and of course, turkey and ham (both which freeze well). In winter, my primary source of great deals is the clearance rack. Other than that, great deals on basic cooking and baking supplies are few and far between from January through February.

2012 Fall $537 2013 Winter $328
2013 Fall $416 2014 Winter $254
2014 Fall $456 2015 Winter $295
2015 Fall $323 2016 Winter $282
2016 Fall $635 2017 Winter $287
2017 Fall $614 2018 Winter $293
2018 Fall $540 2019 Winter $252*
2019 Fall $328 2020 Winter (budget of $211) 

What does all of this mean? Well, it's interesting to see this typed out -- just how great of a difference the spending between fall and winter of the same "year" can be. But also, as I mentioned at the beginning of November, knowing this allows me to plan my budgeting for these four months. My grocery budget, then, is dynamic and responsive to available deals. 

This past fall, I "borrowed" $30 each from both January 2020 and February 2020's grocery budget to give me a larger, stocking-up grocery budget for both November and December. January and February of 2020 are "coasting" months, meaning I will buy less and instead rely on all that I bought at seasonally-low prices previously.

There you have it -- a very geeky look at one household's grocery spending in the fall and winter months.


*to note: Our reduced grocery budget, due to my husband's employment situation, did not kick in until March of 2019. So, the fall 2018 and winter 2019 comparison does not include any cutbacks to the budget, which could have skewed this assessment for that year. The fall 2019 and winter 2020 months all contain our budgetary cutbacks, so the comparison should be accurate and again not skewed.

Cheap & Cheerful Suppers for a New Year

I finished up most of January's grocery shopping this week. Of course, there wasn't a whole lot on the list. I picked up a few pounds of bananas, a head of cabbage, a jar of decaf coffee, 5 cans of pumpkin (on clearance), 9 gallons of 2% milk ($1.19 each), fruitcake fruit, Pringles potato chips (only bought 1 can -- 79 cents), a pound of mushrooms ($1.69), pumpkin-spice marshmallows (29 cents/bag, bought 3 bags), about 6 lbs of apples, 1 package hot dogs, a free energy bar, 40 lbs of oranges, 15 dozen eggs, and 10 lbs of carrots. I spent $62.91 this week, leaving me with $25.02 leftover in  January's budget of $106.04. Our fridges, freezers, and pantry are bursting right now. When the wintry weather finally hits our area, I think we'll be just fine, as far as supplies go.

In case you're curious -- a 40-lb case of oranges has between 72 and 88 oranges, which will probably last us through mid-February. With the eggs, our family goes through 6 dozen or so per month, if we're regularly using eggs in baking, for breakfasts/lunches, and for dinner entrees, such as quiches. So, 15 dozen should be about a 2-month supply for us, with a couple dozen for freezing, as well. I like having some eggs in the freezer, to use in those weeks when I'm waiting to find a good deal on eggs.

Friday's and Saturday's dinners used some of the ham that was baked on New Year's Day. It felt like we were eating a lot of meat over the holidays. So, by Sunday, I was pretty happy to have vegetarian dinners again.

I'm sorry, I didn't take many photos this week.

Friday
leftover ham
roasted butternut squash
leftover potato casserole
leftover marinated artichoke hearts (clearance- dented can)

Saturday

Saturday
lentil, ham, and carrot soup
roasted butternut squash
Christmas candy for dessert

Sunday
refried beans and salsa
brown rice
tortilla chips
carrot sticks


Monday
lentil-based minestrone
butternut-spice muffins
cheddar cheese slices
peanut butter cookies

Tuesday (daughter cooked)
Traditional Vulcan Breakfast -- Plomeek Soup, a vegetable soup, using beets, carrots, and sweet potatoes, among other veggies --my daughter used this recipe, it freezes well
grilled cheese sandwiches
blackberries (frozen) topped with dusting of sugar

Wednesday

Wednesday
leftover lentil minestrone soup from Monday
egg, bread, cheese strata
orange wedges

Thursday (other daughter cooked)
tuna-noodle casserole, adding peas and some celery leaves
canned green beans


Tonight is the night that we take our tree down. I've planned a dinner of homemade pizza, cole slaw, and snack mix made from mixed nuts, raisins, and pretzels.

The holidays featured a lot of rich or snacky foods. I think it'll will be a lovely change to sink into menus of soup, homemade breads, and simple desserts. You may have noticed, 4 of the 7 nights featured soup this past week for us.

You may be wondering a bit about the Vulcan soup. I previously mentioned that my two daughters are big Star Trek fans. One of my daughters came across Vulcan recipes and thought she'd try this out. The soup was surprisingly delicious, and it used up a bag of beets that I'd dug in late fall and had been sitting in the fridge. (Without the leaves, beet roots can keep in cold storage for several weeks. I did use the greens within days of harvesting the beets.)

That's my week of suppers. What was on your menu this past week? After a rich and decadent holiday season, what was the simpler food that you craved the most?

Wishing you a wonderful weekend!