Cocoa Shortages? Maybe Not?

I made my weekly shopping trip this morning, this time to WinCo. I had heard rumblings from several mainstream news sources that there was a worldwide cocoa shortage brewing. So I added cocoa powder from the bulk bins to my shopping list. 

I got to the bulk bin section and lo and behold, the cocoa bin was completely empty. I asked the friendly woman refilling various bins if cocoa powder was on the list to be refilled today, thinking I'd gladly hang around a little longer if it meant getting cocoa powder in bulk (the bulk is always less expensive than the packaged cocoa powder). She went to the stockroom and came back with bad news. Not only was the cocoa powder not to be restocked today, but the next shipment wasn't due until mid-April. She said her supervisor said something about problems with the shipment.

I made a beeline to the regular baking section, and to my relief, there were several containers of cocoa on the shelf. But, it was so much more expensive than the last time I bought packaged cocoa powder, three years ago. The price on store brand cocoa powder was almost double per pound what it would have been if bought from the bulk bins. Still, I bought 2 canisters of cocoa powder today. 

When I got home, I did a little more reading on the cocoa situation. Here's what I learned. Cocoa prices hit an all time high this past December. 70% of cocoa is grown in Africa, mostly along the west coast. Crops have been poorer than usual due to excessive rainfall and higher than typical temperatures. In addition, a virus has been attacking cocoa trees, reducing their productive years. And finally, supply chain has been interrupted due to political instability, regulatory pressures, and logistical bottlenecks in exporting the harvested cocoa pods. 

One news source suggested that cocoa prices would remain high through 2025. However, I also checked the cocoa futures page on tradingeconomics.com for more up-to-date cocoa trading information. Cocoa futures are trading significantly lower now in March than they were in December. Weather prospects in West Africa have improved and it appears there will be a supply surplus for the current growing season, the first surplus in four years. Cocoa inventories in US ports have climbed significantly since December 2024. The longterm 2025 outlook is for cocoa futures prices to moderate to a mid-point (around $10,000 per tonne) between December's high future's price and today's low future's price, in about 12 months time.

So it looks like a severe shortage for the year has been averted. Still, more and more of the world's population now enjoys cocoa products, which means the limited amount currently being produced has to be shared amongst a larger group of people. 

To the rescue, innovative ideas in both how to grow cocoa and the introduction of newer cocoa substitutes which could replace part of cocoa needed in chocolate-flavored treats and beverages. The combination of the above innovations could take the pressure off tighter supply and keep cocoa affordable, even during poor growing seasons and with more people around the world enjoying chocolate.

I'm relieved that my chocolate-y fix is assured going forward. My personality could suffer some disturbances should my personal supply chain of cocoa be interrupted.

A Question and Your Thoughts About Alternative Milks

On tonight's menu from last week's cook-ahead work, another easy dinner -- chicken in BBQ sauce over brown rice. The chicken was previously cooked, chopped and added to some sautéed onions then frozen in broth. I've added some BBQ sauce and seasonings for flavor. The rice was also previously cooked and frozen. I microwave it to reheat. With the entree we had canned green beans, steamed carrots, and an eggless applesauce cake for dessert.

On to the topic of the day:

I would like your input on some questions about alternative milks.

You all do a lot of research yourselves on many topics. So I thought I'd turn to you to enlarge my own body of knowledge on alternative milks. As I've mentioned many times, I'm lactose intolerant. While I can "cheat" on other intolerances, dairy is the one that I just can't cheat on. I can eat hard cheeses, and I'm so glad for that. However, I can't do dairy milk. 

I'm looking for liquid sources of protein and calcium that are suitable for use in smoothies, puddings, and sauces. For many years I've used soy milk. I think I've been fairly satisfied with soy milk. But I know there's controversy on soy. So, my first question for you: what is it about soy that you feel would be bad for health? Is it GMO or pesticide/herbicide use in growing soy, or is it in the processing of soy? Or is it something else about soy?

For my next question, I've been exploring other alternative milks. I used to use almond milk and occasionally rice milk. Rice milk is very low in protein, so I don't use it any more. I'm now allergic to several tree nuts, including almonds, walnuts, pecans, and cashews. So the nut milks, while a good source of protein, don't work for me either. Have you read about or tried any non-nut alternative milks that are high in protein and contain some natural calcium? Have you tried a milk that you thought had a particularly appealing taste? Have you tried one that you thought was awful?

Just to note, I'm not looking to make my own alternative milk. Instead, I'm hoping to find a ready-made milk/drink that I can buy locally and then alternate with my regular non-GMO powdered soy milk.

Your knowledge and suggestions are very appreciated. Thank you in advance.