Some reasons why prices could be lower in fall on groceries
- late summer and early fall are peak harvest season for traditional farms, which means there is an abundance of fresh produce to sell. High supply lowers prices.
- since the harvest season brings in such abundance, late summer through early fall is peak commercial canning and freezing season. Due to shipping and distribution, there is a bit of lag time between harvesting/processing and product reaching store shelves. Retailers want to unload last year's canned and frozen goods to make room for this year's, so they feature canned goods as an advertised sale long enough to deplete the stores of last year's goods while not cutting in too much to this year's.
- the abundance of fresh, traditional fall farm produce, such as carrots, potatoes, onions, and winter squash overlaps with the income of the fresh citrus crop in November and December. This leads to an even larger supply of fresh produce to sell.
- in addition, fresh citrus is rarely canned or frozen, with the exception of processing into juices. Growers can usually get a better price for their less-blemished citrus when sold fresh, provided the price does not drop too much. The more-blemished citrus is harder to sell as fresh, so that is what is generally used for juice. This idea is changing, however, as more people are buying "gourmet" bottled juices (which are often simply unusual combinations of produce processed into one juice blend). The "gourmet" juices are able to garner a significantly larger price per unit than the fresh citrus.
- the produce gluts overlap with some end-of-season dairy gluts in the form of cheese and butter. Even with modern dairy production, there is still a peak production period for animals. Only so much milk can be sold as fresh. The rest of the milk is processed into other dairy products, such as butter, cheese, and yogurt, as well as canned and dried forms of milk. A glut means high supply/ability to lower prices.
- grocers know that consumers will buy and eat more food on and around Thanksgiving, Christmas, Hanukkah, and New Years. This fore-knowledge leads to grocers ordering in greater bulk and perhaps paying a lower wholesale price per unit, then passing on some of this savings to the consumer.
- With some version of the fall and winter holidays universally celebrated in the US and Canada, at least to some extent, grocers capitalize on this by using loss-leader sales to get the consumer to spend a larger share of their shopping dollars in-store. This applies not only to the foods used for these traditional holidays, but to non-food items as well. The store gets you in to buy a turkey, and you buy not only the trimmings but several non-food gifts as well. The store can afford to offer a lower than cost price on that turkey because they know you will buy other products that have a significant mark-up.
Some reasons why prices could be higher in winter
- in January, February, and sometimes March, there are only a couple of minor food-related events or occasions that are universally celebrated. The two that I can think of are the Superbowl and Valentine's Day. Neither holiday/event produce much of a spending frenzy on food as we see for Thanksgiving, Christmas, Hanukkah and New Years. Because of that, grocers can't be certain that if they offer many loss-leaders than consumers will buy much else to compensate for the store's loss.
- this is compounded by the need to tighten a budget that many consumers feel after the winter holidays. Even if the Superbowl or Valentine's Day were significant feasting holidays, many consumers would still likely scale back on their spending, out of need, in comparison to how they spent in the fall and early winter. This provides even less incentive for a retailer to offer a lot of loss-leaders.
- the glut of produce from the fall has dwindled to a supply that is near or less than demand, which drives prices up. The types of local produce that are available in winter are fewer, so for a store to have variety, more has to be shipped in from distant farms.
- egg prices are driven up by a reduced supply in mid-winter. Even with modern laying set-ups, which can produce eggs year round, there is still a season to peak production of hens, which is not in winter. This is compounded with the farms that do support more natural conditions for laying, such as free range hens. These hens have a very definite production season. The supply of more naturally-produced eggs is reduced in most regions in winter, which means folks who would have bought "natural" eggs during the peak season may now be buying some or all of their eggs from the more commercial laying operations, adding to the existing demand for the more commercial product.
What can we do now, with fall behind us, to avoid overspending on winter groceries
- there will still be one or two loss-leaders per sales cycle. Stores need to offer some sort of incentive to get buyers into the store. Keeping an eye out for those especially good deals could net some bargains. Remember, some of these deals may come in a different format, such as you may need to use an online order or in-store pickup to get a deal.
- when you do find a clearance on holiday food items, consider whether or not it could be useful this winter or spring. An example, I found some frozen holiday cookie dough for 49 cents a package. Yes, they look like holiday cookies, but we can overlook that for a small treat later this month. But I bypassed the significantly-marked down eggnog last week, because I didn't feel my family would enjoy it that much, and regular milk was so much cheaper per gallon. (Eggnog is typically drunk instead of milk in my house, not in addition to milk.) I did buy a small container of fruitcake fruit because I use it in a sweet bread that I bake for Easter. And I bought those pumpkin-spice marshmallows that I mentioned last week, because I can use them in cocoa and to make bar cookies this winter. So, some holiday foods, when marked down, can be useful and provide inexpensive treats while keeping grocery spending low.
- if fresh produce isn't really necessary for a dish, use canned or frozen. An example, while soup made with fresh veggies in summer is delicious, in winter a very similar soup can be made with canned veggies. And if only half of a can is needed for a recipe, the other half can be frozen to use another time.
- use this time to use up any surpluses that you may have.
- start an indoor garden -- grow sprouts! Sprouts are a practically-free fresh vegetable to grow in the off-season.
- stick to the lower-priced fresh produce. Even when carrots are on the expensive side for their variety, they're still a lot cheaper than fresh green beans or zucchini out of season.
- keep a close eye on perishable fresh produce so that it is consumed or processed before it spoils.
- carefully consider "deals" on produce this time of year. Do you have time to consume or process produce before it goes soft or develops signs of rot? Do you have room in your fridge or other cold storage to store fresh produce? Even long-keepers can spoil eventually. This time of year, I refrigerate produce that I might otherwise store in my pantry, such as potatoes, onions, winter squash, and oranges. I figure the foods were harvested months ago and at this point their remaining life is very limited.
- St. Patrick's Day brings sales on cabbage, corned beef, and potatoes for about 1 week. These are all long-keeping foods that can be stocked up on. I don't often buy the corned beef, but I do always buy several heads of cabbage and a bag of potatoes.
- find substitutes as you see you are running low on an item that you don't expect to find on sale for a few weeks. Look for no-egg baking recipes, egg substitutions, recipes that can use oil in place of butter, etc. This may be a period of creative cookery, but its time will come to an end when the Easter and Passover sales start up. I typically find butter, eggs, granulated and confectioner's sugar, canned pineapple, and coconut on sale then. Feature more meatless meals to stretch your limited supply of meat. Hams frequently go on sale for Easter and the price of roasting chickens and chicken parts seem to drop to their seasonal low in mid to late spring.
Savvy shoppers on a tight budget are a lot like squirrels. When there is plenty, we work hard to store away as much as we can. Then in the lean months, we live off of our stored supplies. Later, the warm weather in early spring tempts us to peek our heads out of our warm nests and seek out enough deals to tide us over until the abundance returns.
