On facebook, last Friday, I mentioned finding eggs on sale again this week, and reading the USDA weekly report on wholesale egg supply and pricing. This prompted other thoughts and queries (of course, right? Doesn't everyone carry on these odd egg conversations in their heads?).
So, back in April, I went to plan my Easter egg stock-up. I went back through my grocery journals and found that eggs typically went on sale again in July. I think I mentioned this in a blog post about stocking up on eggs. At the pre-Easter egg sales, I stocked up on enough eggs to get through till another egg sale, in July. I bought 20-some dozen eggs in April. I froze about 8 dozen, and used the rest of them as fresh eggs.
Was I ever right on eggs going on sale again in July! I surprised even myself, as I'd never formally made this connection before. Now all this could change by next year. You know how that is, you just get something figured out and it all changes!
Anyway, 2 weeks in a row, medium eggs were on sale locally for 99 cents/dozen. Which given how expensive eggs have become in the last 2 months, 99 cents for medium eggs is pretty fab.
I went online, did some reading at the USDA website and found out this -- historically (over last several years) wholesale egg prices are relatively low in July. Wholesale prices also dip in May, but I didn't notice any particular retail activity with eggs in our markets. Wholesale egg prices historically go up a small amount in August, then come down and remain steady for September, October, November. They then peak in December, again, dropping back down in late January. Visit this page, for this information:
egg-cite.com.
There remains one complication for this year's egg inventory, the virus which infected US chicken flocks (which prompted the current shortage of eggs, and hence rising egg retail prices). There is some worry that wild bird migrations in fall could lead to new infection in domestic chickens. All of this could prompt reduced flocks again and higher eggs prices. But we don't know on that, and right now, the USDA is working with poultry producers towards minimizing any spread of disease. Forewarned is forearmed, so to speak.
Whether or not the Avian flu returns with the wild, migrating birds to a significant degree, I am taking my own precautions, with regards to our family's supply of eggs. What I do know is that historically, I have an opportunity to stock up on eggs in summer through fall. And I will need to have a supply of eggs for cooking and baking for the November and December holidays (when egg prices might be high again).
Tracking prices in my area and stocking up
My expectation/hope is to find large eggs around $1.50 to $1.89/dozen as a loss-leader sale item, likely with limits on purchase amounts, within the next 3 months. That $1.50 to $1.89 per dozen would put a loss-leader at 50-80% higher for LL pricing than previous years. But based on current mid-west wholesale prices on eggs, this is about what I feel I can expect. In the PNW, there are a few grocery stores who use eggs as a semi-regular loss-leader. I'll be watching the ads for those stores.
As well, our Cash & Carry's prices tend to reflect what is going on in the wholesale market. This can give me an idea as to whether a store's front-page, advertised price is a good one or not. Currently, C & C has bulk large eggs (a case of 15 dozen) for $2.85/dz. This isn't a sale price, but their "regular" price. Compare this to Walgreen's ad this week. Walgreen's has large eggs for $3.49/dz. So, for me, I can see that Walgreen's price isn't my "best".
In April, I determined that 22 dozen eggs was about a 5 month supply for our family, with no restrictions on using eggs. I could stretch that to 6 months or so, if I'm more careful with egg use. It's now the end of July. If I want enough eggs to get our family through Christmas and New Years, and into January, I'll need about 25 dozen eggs, between now and January. I'll freeze as many as I can, for those last 3 months-worth. The rest will keep, refrigerated, for a month to 6 weeks past the sell-by date.
This past time, with freezing eggs, I found a method/quantity that works well for me. It's easy, and minimizes my work. I run the eggs through the blender, with the salt or sugar needed to stabilize the yolks. Then I pour into half-pint and pint-size containers and freeze.
When I needed eggs, I would thaw a container, and keep in the fridge. As I needed each egg, I'd measure out 1/4 cup for each large egg called-for in a recipe. The thawed eggs kept for about 3 or 4 days in the fridge. If on the last day of what I felt they would still be "good", I still had 3 or 4 eggs worth of blended egg left, I simply planned that night's dinner around the remaining eggs, like a quiche or frittata.
Freezing eggs in larger containers than a single egg simplified the freezing step. (My other method of freezing eggs is one at a time in a muffin tin. But with a muffin tin, I have to remove the frozen eggs from the tin and put in bags. Not a huge deal, but enough extra work to make the job of freezing the eggs sound like more work.)
About the future of egg prices
I suspect that we will ultimately pay higher prices for eggs, even after flocks have been restored. The current method of commercial poultry production leaves our domestic poultry vulnerable to viral infections and widespread disease. Backyard chickens are less vulnerable to disease, as they frequently are allowed to roam and see more hours of sunlight. Backyards are generally warmer and drier for the chickens. The Avian flu virus doesn't spread as well in warm and dry climates.
Commercial poultry producers will need to make changes to their methods of operation, if they want to avoid mass-euthanasia of their flocks. And that will lead to higher costs for the producers, and higher retail prices for the eggs. I think that's just something we'll need to come to terms with, as consumers.
Just thought I'd share this information with you. Because I know you're just riveted with all of this egg-information! LOL! But really, it could be helpful to someone reading, who wants to plan their grocery spending, as I do.
And an FYI, if you're in the southern hemisphere, if you reverse the calendar for months when egg inventory is high/low, I would assume that wholesale egg prices would drop in January for you. Anyone in Australia, New Zealand, or any other country south of the equator -- have you noticed lower prices on eggs at particular times of the year?
