Fortune-telling: Butter prices down the pike

(I know you all think that I have way too much time on my hands, hence these posts on the forecasted price of eggs and butter. But in actuality, I have the same amount of free time as everyone else. I just happen to use my free time a bit peculiarly, as in reading domestic, Oceanic and European dairy reports.)

In the comment's section, the other day, the price of butter at the supermarket came up. What are your supermarket prices like on butter, these days? The regular price is upwards of $3 per pound in my area, at the regular grocery stores. I've been buying most of my butter at Cash & Carry, in bulk, 30-lb cases of butter prints. ("Butter print" is the term describing pounds of butter that are wrapped, all in one 1-lb block, in a single sheet of printed waxed paper.) I do get a more favorable price per pound than the standard supermarket price, with exception to loss-leader sales.

Anyway, I was reading a bunch of dairy reports and forecasts yesterday, trying to get a handle on what the future price of butter might be this coming fall and winter.

So, the rise in prices in late 2014 was due in large part to increasing exports of US butter. It made more financial sense for dairy producers to sell US butter overseas, where they could get a better price. This increased income for farmers meant that they could pay down debt, increase herd size and pay for expensive feed. And as we all know, this meant a reduced supply for US consumers, and a higher price for us as a consequence.

From what I've read, production will increase in the immediate future and down the road into 2016, with increased herd size. It's also been projected that exported butter will drop down as the international market becomes saturated. (If producers can't get their favorable high price internationally, due to saturation of the market, selling domestically will again increase.) So, as the domestic supply of butter increases, albeit in small bits at a time, butter prices (which have already pulled back in the wholesale market since the end of last year), will ultimately drop a bit more at our local supermarkets.


So what all this boils down to is this -- it's my thinking that butter prices will be better this year, over last year, for the November/December holidays. Don't sue me if I'm wrong! LOL! But this is just my hunch.

You could still see butter as a loss-leader in one of your stores, as summer draws to a close. With dropping wholesale prices on all dairy in recent months (price of cheese and liquid milk has come down in my area -- yours, too?), retailers would not take too big of a hit if they put butter as a loss-leader near the end of summer, very beginning of fall. (This season change corresponds with consumer changes in cooking and baking, as we move away from easy barbeque cookery and back to the warm air of a kitchen wafting with baking and cooking aromas.) So, with this reasoning, I looked back through my grocery journals, and found that butter was on sale for $2/lb at Fred Meyer (limit w/coupon), the week of September 16, last year.

Your best price on butter will almost always be a loss-leader item, probably with purchase limits (unless you have a wholesaler in which to shop, as I do, or an Aldi's). To maximize what you are allowed to buy, within the limits, remember that each time you shop at a store in the week something is advertised, you are a "new" customer. You are allowed to buy the limited item, again, in that same week, unless the wording of the ad says something to the effect of "limit 1 per family/household" -- very, very rare, though. (If a store with an advertised item has a limit and I want more, I make a point to stop in as often as I can, bringing as many family members as I can with me.) In our family, I send each adult family member through the line with the limited amount. I wouldn't do this with young kids, as that doesn't "feel" right to me. But with my adult kids, it's plausible that they're at the age they could be living on their own, doing their own shopping and cooking. It's just that in our family, we allow our adult kids to live at home, in exchange for some rent. So, if you find butter as a loss-leader, maximize your purchase, enough to get you through till mid-November (US), or possibly early October (for Canada), and/or December, when the holiday baking sales will feature butter as loss-leaders, at least once in the season.

Right now (July and August) we're in a marketing lull with regards to butter as a loss-leader at supermarkets. The items you typically see in summer on loss-leader are things like hot dogs and other BBQ supplies.

Those are my thoughts on butter prices for the next several months. Does anyone have any other insights into prices on butter in the near future?



What you can do right now, to get you through to a good sale on butter:

• use vegetable oil in baking/cooking, in place of butter
• use fat alternatives, like pureed pumpkin, applesauce, bananas, in place of butter in baking
• save meat fat, to use in cooking, in place of butter/oil
• clarify pork fats, like bacon fat, to use in place of solid shortening in pie crusts and blended with butter in flavorful cookies (like peanut butter cookies) *more on clarifying bacon fat at the bottom of post
• make your own soft butter for table use, using 3 parts butter to 1 part vegetable oil

Clarifying bacon fat to use in baking

I have done this a couple of times. It's an age-old method for removing the smokey flavors from bacon fat. I've never done this with other fats, but I assume it would as well.

Pour melted bacon fat into a saucepan. Add 2 cups of water. Bring to a boil. Reduce heat and simmer for 5 minutes.

Remove from heat, and allow to cool. Once cooled, chill in the fridge for about 20 minutes, until the fat hardens on top of the liquid. Drain off the dirty water. Add 2 cups of clean water, and repeat the simmering for 5 minutes. Do this 3 or 4 times. The water will become clearer  and the fat will be milder in flavor, with each boiling.

After the final simmering, chilling and draining, remove the bacon fat to a container to save in the fridge until use in baking. 

I used this in pie pastry (in place of lard/shortening) and cookies (blended half and half with butter). We thought it was acceptable enough. It is time-consuming, but is something you can do in the kitchen while other prep work is going on. And it will spare you some money spent on butter. I originally did this as a "pioneer" lesson while homeschooling my kids. It was one of those "let's see if this really works" sort of lessons. Fun times!



Not to rub salt into your wound, but boy am I ever glad I decided to buy that case of 30-lbs of butter this past winter when butter prices dropped to about $1.67/lb at Cash & Carry. I was on the fence whether to just buy enough for a couple of months or to go for it and buy the case. But I based my decision on this -- December at Cash & Carry saw their "holiday" sale on butter priced at about $1.84/lb. So, in January, when the price was almost 20 cents less than what had been already a "good" price, that swayed me. Cash & Carry's sale prices are for the most part steady, staying the same price point for several seasons. Except, every once in a while they have a stupendously low price for an item. (Last fall, we bought several #10 cans of pureed pumpkin for a pittance on one of these extremely rare sales.)